South Sudan is on Fire. Here's Why. (And More)

S.R 24.3 (Title): South Sudan is on Fire. Here’s Why. (Author: Morris M.) In a world of conflict hotspots - from eastern Europe to the Middle East - it may

Simon Whistler February 25, 2026

S.R 24.3 (Title): South Sudan is on Fire. Here’s Why. (Author: Morris M.) In a world of conflict hotspots - from eastern Europe to the Middle East - it may have a claim to being the hottest of them all. Sources (South Sudan): Economist: https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2025/03/13/another-civil-war-looms-in-south-sudan NY Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/17/world/africa/south-sudan-war.html Sudan War Monitor, RSF attack into South Sudan: https://sudanwarmonitor.com/p/renk-county-fighting-splmio-rsf Crisis Group: https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-africa/south-sudan/south-sudan-precipice-renewed-full-blown-war Arab News: https://www.arabnews.com/node/2594018/middle-east Sudan War Monitor, airstrikes in Nasir: https://sudanwarmonitor.com/p/nasir-fire-bombing Conversation: https://theconversation.com/violence-in-south-sudan-is-rising-again-whats-different-this-time-and-how-to-avoid-civil-war-252395 ISS Africa: https://issafrica.org/iss-today/transition-fatigue-in-south-sudan-ramps-up-tensions WFP, famine in Sudan: https://www.wfp.org/emergencies/sudan-emergency Reuters, UAE gun-running to RSF: https://www.reuters.com/world/uae-flights-flood-airstrip-un-says-supplies-weapons-sudan-rebels-2024-12-12/

Key Takeaways

S.R 24.3 (Title): South Sudan is on Fire. Here’s Why. ( .) In a world of conflict hotspots - from eastern Europe to the Middle East - it may have a claim to being the hottest of them all.
Right now, tensions in multiple nations around the Horn of Africa are at boiling point.
One in which we’ll be checking in on the most-dangerous conflicts brewing in the Horn of Africa, and the countries immediately surrounding it.
Somewhere around 400,000 people died before a peace accord was reached between President Salva Kiir and his Dinka faction, and vice-president Riek Machar and his Nuers.
And Sudan itself collapsed into civil war between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces in 2023.

Key Developments

Right now, tensions in multiple nations around the Horn of Africa are at boiling point. Countries are in flames as the result of civil conflict, or staring at one another down the barrel of a gun. Insurgencies are devastating cities, resource wars are tearing apart the countryside, and everywhere cracks are beginning to show. Cracks that point towards what the Sudan War Monitor called: “A (coming) regional conflagration not seen since the late Cold War.” Yet cast your eye over most media outlets, and there is only silence. While headlines are filled with negotiations over Ukraine, Israeli strikes in Gaza, and the latest thing Trump has said, few seem to be covering this brewing catastrophe. Hence this episode. And it’s here that we find the larger, and even more concerning prospect that General Bayru warned about in his report: for a civil conflict in Tigray to spiral into a regional war that would bring in not just Ethiopia and Eritrea, but the other nations of the African Horn and beyond. All the while, as Bayru points out, the world is distracted by Gaza, Ukraine, the Congo, and other important conflicts—leaving the question of greater-power involvement in an African Horn conflict in the hands of, quote, “rich Middle Eastern countries like the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Egypt, and Turkiye”—who will be, quote, “the decisive actors to shape the outcome of the war”. In a world where the international order seems to be rapidly eroding, those powers could act with near-impunity, intensifying a conflict that Knopf and Rondos in Foreign Policy warn, quote, “would destroy what is left of Sudan, destabilize Chad, and create a highway of instability connecting the Sahel to the Red Sea.” And all the while, owing both to the critical divide within its own civil society, and its geography at the very epicenter of such a conflict, it’ll be the region of Tigray that is brought to ruin while playing its part as a battlefield. As Rousselle pointed out in the early paragraphs of his series, the Islamic State in Somalia has been instrumental in propping up Islamic State activities across Africa: nations like Uganda, South Africa, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Strategic Implications

One in which we’ll be checking in on the most-dangerous conflicts brewing in the Horn of Africa, and the countries immediately surrounding it. Conflicts that have the potential to spill over borders and set the whole region ablaze. The least-covered and potentially most-dangerous of all of these? The civil war that may be about to erupt in South Sudan. If you’re thinking something along the lines of, “hold up, didn’t South Sudan already have a civil war?”, well, you’d be right. Between 2013 and 2018, the young country fractured along ethnic lines, with the two main groups - Dinkas and Nuers - slaughtering one another on a grand scale. As Crisis Group’s project director for the Horn of Africa, Alan Boswell has noted: “When outsiders get involved, local conflicts in South Sudan tend to turn into full-blown war.” Sadly, getting involved in South Sudanese affairs is apparently what the country’s neighbors are all about. It will draw in the whole neighbouring region, including Sudan, and the security of the Red Sea will be directly affected.” Now, Bayru’s warning went a good deal beyond that, and the picture that he painted of a region descending into chaos, was a dark one to behold. Ethiopia and Eritrea On the Brink: From South Sudan, we turn to Ethiopia and Eritrea, two African Horn nations with a history of brutal violence, and with the potential and apparent will to share a whole lot more. The entire African Horn region matters here, not just as neutral observers, but as potential participants that might be willing or even eager to take a side. In fact, Ethiopia has grown very unpopular in the African Horn and the surrounding region over the last couple of years. Dissident Tigrayan forces have claimed portions of eastern Tigray, and as regional experts Payton Knopf and Alexander Rondos wrote in their own urgent warning via Foreign Policy, quote: “The risk of a coup against the administration or the assassination of some of its leaders can no longer be ignored.” Any such act would likely serve as a starting gun, kicking off a wave of fighting wit the potential to eclipse even what the Tigray region has suffered so far.

Risk and Uncertainty

Somewhere around 400,000 people died before a peace accord was reached between President Salva Kiir and his Dinka faction, and vice-president Riek Machar and his Nuers. But while the agreement stopped the killing, it created a far from stable peace. Aside from demilitarizing the capital, Juba, the main thing the agreement promised was that profits from South Sudan’s vast oilfields would be shared between the two men. As regular viewers will remember from previous episodes, that was all fine and dandy until the main pipeline carrying two thirds of the nation’s output ruptured last year. At which point, tensions started to rise. South Sudan’s pipelines, see, run across the nation it was once a part of: Sudan. But we can’t ignore the threat that is posed by the breakdown between President Kiir and Vice President Machar. Today, it’s a live debate whether the vice president has any operational control over them - but in Salva Kiir’s mind the debate is already settled. As to why Sudan’s military - which, remember, is fighting its own civil war - would want to arm groups opposing President Kiir… well, the answer may lie in who Kiir is friends with. Since the soldiers arrived, the country’s military chief has declared on social media that: “Any move against (President Kiir) is a declaration of war against Uganda.” There are rumors, too, that Uganda’s air force carried out the airstrikes on Nasir. So, you now have a situation where Sudan’s military may be arming the White Army in its fight against Juba, while the RSF and Uganda move in to prop up President Kiir’s rule. The war concluded in 2022, when a peace accord was signed in Pretoria, and Eritrean troops have been parked on a portion of Tigray ever since. Just days after the city’s fall, Machar’s house in the capital Juba was surrounded by forces loyal to Kiir. The very next day, Machar’s political party pulled out of the peace process that ended the civil war.

Outlook

And Sudan itself collapsed into civil war between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces in 2023. A civil war that’s likely now one of the worst conflicts happening anywhere on Earth. That conflict made repairing the ruptured pipeline all but impossible. And that in turn meant President Kiir suddenly had a whole lot less money to pay Vice-President Machar’s faction off with. The first impacts were felt last November, when Kiir embarked on a firing spree, throwing allies out of power in an attempt to keep his slice of the pie. As the Economist noted, the president, “feels threatened by his lack of resources.” But things really came to a head over the last month. Although it gets a fraction of the media coverage of Ukraine or the Middle East, there’s a good argument that Sudan’s civil war is the worst disaster currently happening anywhere in the world. Violence from the war in Sudan will spill over, with both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces eager to try and win allies by taking a side. Crisis Group explains the army wants: “To prevent the RSF from establishing a secure zone of operations spanning from Darfur in the west through South Kordofan in the south through South Sudan’s Upper Nile to Sudan’s Blue Nile state and Ethiopia in the east. Puntland forces have drawn on the support of American air power, in coordinated strikes that have cleared the way for pushes by ground forces. According to Sudanese media, the president may well be in bed with the Rapid Support Forces. Back in the civil war, the White Army fought alongside Machar’s forces. Such a corridor would threaten the army’s war aim of trying to push the RSF west of the Nile in Sudan and contain it there.” When the conflict first erupted in its northern neighbor, Juba did its best to stay neutral. Meanwhile, in the Tigray region, rival factions have taken shape and are now squaring up, with the Tigrayan Defense Forces—a massive and formidable organization—torn apart by accusations against army commanders who allegedly plotted against the Tigrayan administration.

FAQ

What is the central development in South Sudan is on Fire. Here’s Why. (And More)?

What remains uncertain right now?

Somewhere around 400,000 people died before a peace accord was reached between President Salva Kiir and his Dinka faction, and vice-president Riek Machar and his Nuers.

Why does this matter strategically?

One in which we’ll be checking in on the most-dangerous conflicts brewing in the Horn of Africa, and the countries immediately surrounding it. Here, the local IS branch engages in illicit rosewood smuggling […] 30% of the timber logged in Cabo Delgado is at a high risk of coming from insurgent-occupied forests.” Chinese buyers are reportedly quite pleased to acquire that rosewood, no matter who it came from, and partially through their purchases, the Islamic State in Mozambique is estimated to raise nearly two million US dollars in revenue every month.

What indicators should observers monitor next?

And Sudan itself collapsed into civil war between the army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces in 2023. Sources (South Sudan): Economist: https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2025/03/13/another-civil-war-looms-in-south-sudan NY Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/17/world/africa/south-sudan-war.html Sudan War Monitor, RSF attack into South Sudan: https://sudanwarmonitor.com/p/renk-county-fighting-splmio-rsf Crisis Group: https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-africa/south-sudan/south-sudan-precipice-renewed-full-blown-war Arab News: https://www.arabnews.com/node/2594018/middle-east Sudan War Monitor, airstrikes in Nasir: https://sudanwarmonitor.com/p/nasir-fire-bombing Conversation: https://theconversation.com/violence-in-south-sudan-is-rising-again-whats-different-this-time-and-how-to-avoid-civil-war-252395 ISS Africa: https://issafrica.org/iss-today/transition-fatigue-in-south-sudan-ramps-up-tensions WFP, famine in Sudan: https://www.wfp.org/emergencies/sudan-emergency Reuters, UAE gun-running to RSF: https://www.reuters.com/world/uae-flights-flood-airstrip-un-says-supplies-weapons-sudan-rebels-2024-12-12/