South Sudan on the Brink: Nation Faces Collapse

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Video originally published on January 30, 2026.

South Sudan, the world’s youngest country, is slipping back toward full‑scale civil war. After a fragile peace that held from 2018 to early 2024, fighting has reignited across Upper Nile, Jonglei and Equatoria. Ethnic rivalries, a disintegrating political elite and regional meddling are converging while the economy collapses under oil‑revenue loss and shrinking humanitarian aid.

Key Takeaways

The 2018 peace agreement failed to create lasting stability, leaving power‑sharing arrangements eroded by purges, corruption and a collapsing economy.

Ethnic rivalries—primarily between the Dinka (President Salva Kiir) and the Nuer (former Vice‑President Riek Machar)—continue to drive the violence, with other groups such as the Shilluk drawn into the conflict.

External actors have deepened the crisis: Uganda backs Kiir, Sudan supports Machar, and the Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces are suspected of backing the rebels.

The country’s oil‑dependent economy has been devastated by pipeline destruction and aid cuts, leaving millions in need of humanitarian assistance and widespread hunger.

Renewed fighting has spread beyond isolated flashpoints, threatening to engulf key states and potentially leading to state collapse.

Undeclared War

International observers now agree that South Sudan has slipped back into war despite official denials. The International Crisis Group, the Reconstituted Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission and the United Nations all warn that cease‑fire violations are accelerating and that the 2018 peace accord has lost credibility. Armed opposition groups have seized towns in Upper Nile and Jonglei, displacing over 180,000 people and showing clear signs of spreading beyond rural flashpoints. (Source 1, 2, 9)

Decline and Fall of the Leadership

President Salva Kiir, now 74 and visibly frail, has responded with a series of purges that destabilised his own coalition. Key allies such as Bol Mel and senior SPLM‑IO officials have been removed, and Machar was dismissed from the vice‑presidency and charged with treason. These moves echo the infighting that sparked the 2013 civil war and have reignited ethnic tensions. Simultaneously, the oil‑dependent economy has been crippled by a destroyed pipeline through Sudan and steep cuts to USAID, leaving nearly ten million people in need of humanitarian assistance and six million facing hunger. (Source 5, 7, 8, 11)

Slaughter and Escalation

Government forces, led by Deputy Army Chief General Johnson Olony and the Agwelek militia, have issued explicit threats to “spare no one” in Jonglei, a statement condemned by Human Rights Watch as reminiscent of past atrocities. The Shilluk‑based militia is now confronting Nuer communities, while opposition forces such as the White Army and SPLM‑IO have launched offensives toward strategic towns like Bor and have threatened to march on Juba if Machar remains imprisoned. Fighting has already spilled into Unity State and border areas with Kenya, Uganda and the Congo, with both sides receiving external support that risks further regional escalation. (Source 3, 4, 6, 10, 12)

Danger Signs and Emerging Actors

New rebel formations—Operation Rescue South Sudan and the Red Belt Group—are adding layers of complexity to an already fragmented battlefield. The proliferation of armed groups fuels ethnic recruitment and threatens further fragmentation. Uganda’s continued military backing of Kiir’s government and possible Sudanese Armed Forces assistance to the rebels create a proxy dimension that could prolong hostilities. Neither side appears certain of victory; Kiir’s power base has been eroded by purges and economic collapse, while Machar’s command structure is fracturing as commanders break away. (Source 5, 6, 12, 13)

Future Outlook: Existential Peril

Analysts from the Crisis Group warn that South Sudan’s elites now view the nation as facing “existential peril” and risk disintegration. With the 2018 peace deal effectively dead, war‑crime rhetoric from army commanders, and a population on the brink of famine, the country’s survival is in serious doubt. A rapid military victory for either side could temporarily restore control, but underlying ethnic fissures, corrupt elite networks and dwindling oil revenues suggest any short‑term solution will be fragile. The international community’s waning aid and the entanglement of regional powers further diminish prospects for a swift, negotiated peace. (Source 1, 9, 13)

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FAQ

What triggered the renewed fighting in South Sudan?

Armed opposition movements seized towns in Upper Nile, Jonglei and Equatoria, while President Kiir’s purges of key allies and the removal of Vice‑President Machar reignited ethnic tensions.

Who are the main actors in the current conflict?

President Salva Kiir’s government forces—including the army and the Shilluk‑based Agwelek militia—face the opposition, primarily the SPLM‑IO led by former Vice‑President Riek Machar, together with allied groups such as the White Army.

How are external actors influencing the conflict?

Uganda provides military support to Kiir’s government, while Sudan backs Machar and may be aiding rebels through the Sudanese Armed Forces or the Rapid Support Forces, creating a proxy dimension that risks regional escalation.

What is the risk of South Sudan’s state collapse?

A failed peace agreement, ethnic violence, a crumbling oil economy, widespread hunger and the erosion of elite power structures have led analysts to warn that the country faces existential peril and possible disintegration.

Sources

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TEST

TEST creates and presents analysis focused on military doctrine, strategic competition, and conflict dynamics.

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