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Moldova Elections: Russian Sabotage, Energy Threats, and the EU Referendum
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Moldova Elections: Russian Sabotage, Energy Threats, and the EU Referendum

Explore how Moldova's upcoming elections and EU referendum are being threatened by Russian hybrid warfare, disinformation, and a looming energy crisis.

Simon Whistler
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Simon Whistler

In the normal course of things, it would be unusual for Moldova to find itself in the international spotlight. A nation of just 2.6 million people, with a land area only slightly bigger than Maryland, Moldova is one of Europe’s poorest countries. It is a tiny, post-Soviet state which few people could reliably place on a map. Yet, Moldova is being discussed at the highest levels of global diplomacy. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have traveled there to meet its president, Maia Sandu. Moldova today stands right on the faultline between Russia and the West, a faultline that the country’s upcoming elections are threatening to crack open. Taking place on October 20, polling day will see Moldovans vote on two distinct but related issues: granting President Sandu a second term and a referendum on joining the European Union.

Key Takeaways

  • Moldova faces a critical October 20 election that includes a presidential vote and a referendum on joining the European Union.
  • Russian hybrid tactics, including deepfakes and staged bomb threats, aim to disrupt Moldova’s pro-Western trajectory.
  • Fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor transferred over $15 million in September to bribe an estimated 70,000 Moldovan voters against the EU.
  • Moldova remains highly vulnerable to energy coercion, relying heavily on Russian gas pumped through Transnistria.
  • A looming December 31 expiration of the Russia-Ukraine gas transit contract threatens a severe energy and economic crisis for Moldova and Transnistria.
  • Pro-Russian sentiment persists, with 2023 polling showing only a third of Moldovans believe Ukraine is right in the ongoing conflict.

The Kremlin’s Campaign to Derail European Integration

Perhaps the most pro-Western politician to ever lead Moldova, Sandu has overseen a sharp pivot to Europe, with the country even becoming an official candidate for joining the EU. Alongside their verdict on Sandu, Moldovans will also vote in a referendum on joining the European Union. While the bloc isn’t actually ready to admit Chișinău immediately—although accession talks are underway—a victory for the pro-Europeans would see plans to join the EU enshrined in the Moldovan constitution. The comparatively low stakes of immediate accession do not mean this election isn’t being watched closely from abroad. Nowhere is that more true than in Moscow, where the Kremlin appears determined to orchestrate a “no” vote to both Sandu and to closer ties with Europe. In recent weeks, national police chief Viorel Cernauteanu and national security adviser Stanislav Secrieru have both raised the alarm over Russian sabotage and hybrid tactics intended to rig the election. Over the summer, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Canada issued a joint warning over Kremlin-led plots to incite protests should Sandu win. While polls currently show over 60 percent of the population backs joining the EU, there are fears that a concerted campaign could still swing the result. This is especially concerning given the precarious nature of the Moldovan state. Sandwiched between Romania and Ukraine, Moldova is both comparatively poor and struggling with governance. Transparency International ranks it as the 76th most-corrupt nation on Earth—ahead of Ukraine and Russia, but behind every single EU nation.

Historical Context: Transnistria, Gagauzia, and Sovereign Divisions

On top of corruption and weak institutions, Moldova is also deeply divided. This is not merely a partisan divide, but a literal split between governing entities. Following a brief but bloody war in 1992, the pro-Russian region of Transnistria broke away from Chișinău. Since then, a contingent of Russian peacekeepers has been stationed on its soil. Down in the south, the autonomous region of Gagauzia has likewise developed a pro-Kremlin bent, even as it has opted to remain part of Moldova. The presence of a Russian-backed statelet a mere 60 kilometers from the capital frequently leads to bouts of serious international worry. In 2022, when it briefly looked like Russia was going to seize the Ukrainian port city of Odessa, there were real fears that Moscow’s troops might follow up by annexing Transnistria. As noted by The Economist at the time, if Odessa fell, it would likely be only hours before Russian tanks rolled into Chișinău to install a puppet government. These fears aren’t just the result of geopolitical paranoia. The Russian government has frequently issued coded threats against the country. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov notably compared Chișinău to Kyiv, which many interpreted as a hint at future military action. Earlier this year, Transnistria’s unrecognized government even issued a formal call for help to Moscow. According to the Chatham House think tank, this action echoed similar appeals from inside Ukraine which set in motion the illegal Russian annexations of its territories.

Hybrid Warfare, Deepfakes, and Electoral Bribery

While direct military intervention has not materialized, election interference this year has taken other forms, with abundant evidence that the Kremlin is using hybrid tactics to try and rig the outcome. One prominent method is widespread disinformation. The Foreign Policy Research Institute has documented deepfake videos on social media, including fabrications of President Sandu announcing an EU-directed ban on collecting rosehips—a deeply ingrained Moldovan tradition. Other videos have repurposed footage of Romanian military parades to suggest that Bucharest is about to launch a ground invasion of the country. Beyond digital disinformation, physical disruptions have escalated. There have been documented instances of teenagers being paid small amounts to vandalize public buildings, while others have received instruction on provoking the police during riots. Furthermore, coordinated groups have called in bomb threats at such a staggering volume as to effectively paralyze parts of the capital. However, these disruptions are overshadowed by a massive financial campaign uncovered at the start of October. A prominent pro-Russian businessman was caught offering tens of thousands of ordinary Moldovans cash to vote against President Sandu and joining the EU. That businessman is Ilan Shor, a billionaire dual national of both Moldova and Israel, who was convicted in absentia last year for large-scale banking fraud. A committed supporter of Vladimir Putin, Shor previously headed a political party named after himself until it was banned by the courts. According to police chief Viorel Cernauteanu, Shor transferred over $15 million in September alone to Moldovan citizens to influence their votes. The independent Russian outlet The Moscow Times estimates that 70,000 voters were bribed in this way. Shor has not denied the operation, writing on Telegram that all payments are legal and claiming that Moldova has finally turned into a police state. This follows a pattern from local elections in 2023, where Chatham House reported that Russia funneled up to $55 million into the country to influence the outcome.

Energy Coercion and the Looming Winter Crisis

The Kremlin’s leverage extends far beyond electoral bribery, rooted deeply in structural vulnerabilities. For complex logistical reasons, Moldova historically receives about 80 percent of its energy from gas pumped from Russia across Ukraine and into Transnistria at a steep discount. Transnistria then sells the electricity from its gas-fired plant back to Moldova for a profit. In the autumn of 2022, Moscow attempted energy coercion by cutting gas volumes to the country by a third. Transnistria stopped selling its excess electricity, causing energy prices in Moldova to skyrocket. The economic impact was devastating. Inflation hit an eye-watering 34 percent, and blackouts became common. It was only thanks to generous Western backing for spot market purchases that Moldova avoided complete economic collapse that winter. Even with this support, Moscow continues to exploit a deep base of pro-Russian sentiment among the Moldovan populace. A 2023 Crisis Group poll found that only a third of Moldovans believed Kyiv was in the right in the current conflict, while summer polling showed 59 percent disagreeing with NATO’s decision to arm Ukraine. The Foreign Policy Research Institute notes that Moldova has a long-standing tradition of communist rule, maintaining a communist party and president for decades after independence. Outside nations are actively trying to help combat these vulnerabilities. The United States pledged 46 million euros earlier in the year to counter disinformation. Germany has emerged as a champion of Moldova’s EU accession, driven partly by German car manufacturers investing in local industry. European nations are also helping connect Moldova to Romania’s energy grid to minimize Moscow’s leverage. Yet, the greatest crisis Moldova faces may still be on the horizon, regardless of the election results. The contract allowing Moscow to pump gas through Ukraine expires on December 31, and Kyiv refuses to renew it. If those gas flows shut off for good at the end of 2024, the result will be a major crisis for both Moldova and Transnistria. With new links to the Romanian grid not yet finished, Moldova could face another severe energy crisis, while Transnistria’s economy could entirely collapse without its electricity revenues. It remains to be seen if Chișinău and its international allies will be capable of overcoming this impending geopolitical shock.

Frequently Asked Questions

Did NATO shoot down Russian drones?

Russia’s state-of-the-art S-70 drone was shot down by its own military, using its most sophisticated fighter aircraft, highlighting the complexities of modern warfare, and there is no indication that NATO was involved in this incident.

What is European Union in simple words?

The European Union is a supranational political and economic union of 27 member states, primarily located in Europe, with the goal of promoting economic and political integration among its member states, and it functions through a system of supranational institutions and intergovernmental decision-making processes.

What is the main purpose of the European Union?

The main purpose of the European Union is to promote economic and political integration among its member states, by creating a single market, a customs union, and a common currency, as well as by coordinating policies in areas such as agriculture, environment, and foreign affairs, with the ultimate goal of promoting peace, stability, and prosperity in Europe.

Is the US part of the European Union?

No, the United States is not a member of the European Union, as the EU is a union of 27 European countries, and the US is a separate and independent country, although it has close economic and political ties with many EU member states, and participates in various international organizations and agreements with the EU.

How much does a Russian military drone cost?

The cost of a Russian military drone, such as the S-70, is not publicly disclosed, but it is likely to be in the millions or tens of millions of dollars, given its advanced technology and capabilities, and the fact that it is a state-of-the-art drone used by the Russian military for reconnaissance and combat missions.

Have Ukrainian drones caused a fire in a Russian region?

There is no information available on Ukrainian drones causing a fire in a Russian region, although there have been reports of Ukrainian drones being used for reconnaissance and combat missions against Russian forces, and Russia has shot down its own S-70 drone, highlighting the complexities of modern warfare.

Does Russia have military drones?

Yes, Russia has military drones, including the state-of-the-art S-70 drone, which is used for reconnaissance and combat missions, and has been involved in various military operations, including the incident where it was shot down by its own military, using its most sophisticated fighter aircraft.

What happened to Olaf Scholz?

Olaf Scholz, the Chancellor of Germany, has been involved in various international diplomatic efforts, including meetings with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, to discuss issues such as the partnership between the US and Germany, and the situation in Ukraine and Moldova, where Russia has been accused of attempting to sabotage the upcoming elections and undermine the country’s pro-European government.

Sources

  1. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/whats-stake-moldovas-election-referendum-oct-20-2024-10-08/v
  2. https://www.fpri.org/article/2024/10/russias-information-war-in-moldova/
  3. https://www.crisisgroup.org/europe-central-asia/eastern-europe/moldova/b97-moldova-divided-easing-tensions-russia-meddles
  4. https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/10/03/moldova-uncovers-unprecedented-pro-russia-vote-rigging-a86567
  5. https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/03/moldova-new-battleground-russias-war
  6. https://www.politico.eu/article/pro-russia-oligarch-network-influence-eu-moldova-elections-voter-bribery-disinformation/
  7. https://www.politico.eu/article/moldova-russia-eu-referendum-membership-social-media/
  8. https://www.economist.com/catch-up-drone-strike-on-moscow-biden-pushes-netanyahu-on-ceasefire/2024/08/20/scholz-heads-to-moldova
  9. https://www.economist.com/europe/2024/06/13/the-tiny-statelet-of-transnistria-is-squeezed-on-all-sides
  10. https://www.euronews.com/2024/05/30/us-pledges-124-million-in-aid-to-moldova-to-counter-russian-influence

Frequently Asked Questions

Answers to your most pressing questions about Astro.

Russia's state-of-the-art S-70 drone was shot down by its own military, using its most sophisticated fighter aircraft, highlighting the complexities of modern warfare, and there is no indication that NATO was involved in this incident.
The European Union is a supranational political and economic union of 27 member states, primarily located in Europe, with the goal of promoting economic and political integration among its member states, and it functions through a system of supranational institutions and intergovernmental decision-making processes.
The main purpose of the European Union is to promote economic and political integration among its member states, by creating a single market, a customs union, and a common currency, as well as by coordinating policies in areas such as agriculture, environment, and foreign affairs, with the ultimate goal of promoting peace, stability, and prosperity in Europe.
No, the United States is not a member of the European Union, as the EU is a union of 27 European countries, and the US is a separate and independent country, although it has close economic and political ties with many EU member states, and participates in various international organizations and agreements with the EU.
The cost of a Russian military drone, such as the S-70, is not publicly disclosed, but it is likely to be in the millions or tens of millions of dollars, given its advanced technology and capabilities, and the fact that it is a state-of-the-art drone used by the Russian military for reconnaissance and combat missions.
There is no information available on Ukrainian drones causing a fire in a Russian region, although there have been reports of Ukrainian drones being used for reconnaissance and combat missions against Russian forces, and Russia has shot down its own S-70 drone, highlighting the complexities of modern warfare.
Yes, Russia has military drones, including the state-of-the-art S-70 drone, which is used for reconnaissance and combat missions, and has been involved in various military operations, including the incident where it was shot down by its own military, using its most sophisticated fighter aircraft.
Olaf Scholz, the Chancellor of Germany, has been involved in various international diplomatic efforts, including meetings with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, to discuss issues such as the partnership between the US and Germany, and the situation in Ukraine and Moldova, where Russia has been accused of attempting to sabotage the upcoming elections and undermine the country's pro-European government.