Ukraine's Kursk Incursion Is Over. Was It Worth It?

Ukraine’s Kursk Incursion is (Mostly) Over. Was it Worth It? (Author: Morris M.) “Bold, brilliant, beautiful.” Those were the words Republican senator Lind

Simon Whistler February 25, 2026

Ukraine’s Kursk Incursion is (Mostly) Over. Was it Worth It? (Author: Morris M.) “Bold, brilliant, beautiful.” Those were the words Republican senator Lindsey Graham used back in August to describe Ukraine’s shock invasion of Kursk. As the Telegraph writes of Kursk: “Zelensky wanted to again show the world that Ukraine was still in the fight and could win, if only provided the tools to do so.” But dispute the effusive quote from Senator Graham that we opened this video with, Kursk did little to move the dial in either America or Europe.

Key Takeaways

For the first time since World War Two, a foreign army didn’t just cross onto Russian territory, but actively held it - controlling a swathe of land that, at its maximum extent, covered 1,300 sq km.
A gamble that humiliated Moscow and stunned the world… but that may have also left Kyiv in a more-precarious position than ever before.
Yet, for anyone keeping more than half-an-eye on the conflict, it was clear that things were not as settled as they seemed.
Desperately trying to hold off what will presumably become a combined Russian and North Korean invasion of Ukraine’s Sumy region.
The article is grounded strictly in the source video script and listed references.

Key Developments

For the first time since World War Two, a foreign army didn’t just cross onto Russian territory, but actively held it - controlling a swathe of land that, at its maximum extent, covered 1,300 sq km. By any definition, this made the Kursk offensive an historic moment. A daring attempt by Kyiv to strike back at the aggressor, and take the fight onto the Kremlin’s turf. But, while the moment may indeed have been historic, that still leaves a key question: was it worth it? Did those seven months on Russian soil have an overall positive, or negative impact on Ukraine’s chances in its war for survival? With the Kursk incursion effectively over, now seems the perfect time to reflect on one of the biggest gambles in recent military history. And while we’ve long been sympathetic to the position that diverting troops to Kursk weakened Ukraine in the Donbas, we should acknowledge the argument that tying Russian forces down on Russian territory stopped them from being deployed elsewhere. For the first time since the Wagner Mutiny in summer of 2023, it was possible to see panic in Russian high command.

Strategic Implications

A gamble that humiliated Moscow and stunned the world… but that may have also left Kyiv in a more-precarious position than ever before. (TITLE): The End of the Road For anyone not following the war all that closely, it might have seemed like the story of the Kursk offensive was settled history. One in which the Armed Forces of Ukraine had stormed onto Russian territory and captured a pocket of land - a pocket that had reduced in size since its August heyday, but from which it also appeared Kyiv’s forces had become impossible to dislodge. After all, by dawn of March 6th, the AFU had occupied the region around the town of Sudzha for seven months. Seven months, in which repeated Russian assaults had failed to drive them over the border. In which North Korean troops had tried - and failed - to make an impact. If you’ve been following the performance of Pyongyang’s soldiers in Kursk, you might have the impression that they were a bunch of buffoons who ran into gunfire and got slaughtered. But if you’ve been following accounts of Ukrainian soldiers on the ground, you might have a different impression.

Risk and Uncertainty

Yet, for anyone keeping more than half-an-eye on the conflict, it was clear that things were not as settled as they seemed. That Ukraine’s hold on Kursk was growing increasingly tenuous, even as the rest of the front line remained largely stable. “The pocket was always relatively small,” analyst Rob Lee later told the Financial Times. “Russia then repeatedly just chipped away at it at the flanks.” By the second week of March 2025, that ‘chipping’ had turned into full-bore drilling. As the sides of the pocket began to suddenly give way, independent Russian outlet Meduza describes what happened next: “As has often happened over the past two years of the war, Ukrainian forces withdrew under the threat of encirclement — likely later than they should have. Some equipment was left behind, and many soldiers were killed or captured, but most of Ukraine’s troops managed to escape.” At time of writing, those surviving troops are still clinging to a sliver of Russian land along the border. One soldier who fought for Ukraine in Kursk - and posts on social media as Kriegsforscher - had this to say on X: “(The) Ukrainian army showed that they can fight bravely literally everywhere.

Outlook

Desperately trying to hold off what will presumably become a combined Russian and North Korean invasion of Ukraine’s Sumy region. But the point of this video isn’t to predict what will happen next. Rather, it’s to look back on the last seven months, and try to figure out if it was worth it. If the positive effects of the Kursk incursion outweigh - or are overshadowed by - its downsides. Because it’s only by trying to honestly appraise what went right and what went wrong that any lessons will be learned. That militaries will be able to draw any conclusions. By the end of the operation, some 12,000 Ukrainian troops were trying to hold back a combined force of 50,000 Russians and 12,000 North Koreans. Quote: “Ukraine failed to expand and secure the flanks of the Kursk perimeter, and as Russian reinforcements kept trickling in, the Ukrainian operation turned to a defensive one.” This was a crucial moment, because it meant the pocket got increasingly narrower as Russian forces crept forwards. Others, like analyst Rob Lee, suggest the real turning point was the arrival of North Korean troops. Back in early January, analyst John Helin noted on X that, while the DPRK’s troops were suffering high casualties: “North Koreans are lacking supporting fires, but they’ve been surprisingly successful.” In effect, the 12,000 DPRK soldiers acted as a force multiplier, giving Russia an advantage not conveyed by the stories of North Koreans marching straight into gunfire.

FAQ

What is the central development in Ukraine’s Kursk Incursion Is Over. Was It Worth It??

What remains uncertain right now?

Yet, for anyone keeping more than half-an-eye on the conflict, it was clear that things were not as settled as they seemed. Had Kyiv voluntarily withdrawn its forces after a week of thumbing Russia’s nose, there would be no debate right now as to whether the operation was worth it or not.

Why does this matter strategically?

A gamble that humiliated Moscow and stunned the world… but that may have also left Kyiv in a more-precarious position than ever before. One in which the Armed Forces of Ukraine had stormed onto Russian territory and captured a pocket of land - a pocket that had reduced in size since its August heyday, but from which it also appeared Kyiv’s forces had become impossible to dislodge.

What indicators should observers monitor next?

Desperately trying to hold off what will presumably become a combined Russian and North Korean invasion of Ukraine’s Sumy region. As the sides of the pocket began to suddenly give way, independent Russian outlet Meduza describes what happened next: “As has often happened over the past two years of the war, Ukrainian forces withdrew under the threat of encirclement — likely later than they should have.