Turkey is on Fire. Here's Why.

Turkey is on Fire. Here's Why. Author: Phillip Carroll Note to Simon: Every Turkish ğ is silent. Every Turkish c is an English j - i.e Recep = Rejep, Cumhu

Simon Whistler February 25, 2026

Turkey is on Fire. Here’s Why. Author: Phillip Carroll Note to Simon: Every Turkish ğ is silent. Erdogan Degree Controversy Wiki https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-36436200 BBC News https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/online-exclusive/how-turkeys-opposition-won-big/ Journal of Democracy https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/turkey-country-policy-and-information-notes/country-policy-and-information-note-gulenist-movement-turkey-february-2022-accessible-version UK Government https://www.turkeyinstitute.org.uk/commentary/democracy-like-tram/ Turkey Institute https://www.mfa.gov.tr/an-informative-note-of-the-ministry-of-foreign-affairs-on-the-failed-coup-attempt.en.mfa Turkey MFA https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/3/24/turkiye-detains-over-1100-as-erdogan-blames-evil-opposition-for-protests Al Jazeera https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkey-detains-nearly-1900-people-protests-over-jailed-mayor-rejects-2025-03-27/ Reuters https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/27/bbc-reporter-mark-lowen-arrested-and-deported-from-turkey-after-covering-protests The Guardian https://apnews.com/article/turkey-erdogan-İmamoğlu-mayor-istanbul-arrest-protests-a47b63abb893162a6c55e89d4a2bd79a AP News https://ankahaber.net/haber/detay/İmamoğluna_gozalti_fatih_erbakan_devletin_temeli_olan_adaleti_sarsmanin_kimseye_faydasi_yoktur_226752 Ankahaber https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-39617700 BBC News https://www.meforum.org/middle-east-forum-online/is-erdogan-the-sick-man-of-europe Middle East Forum https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mqk0E1qzx0Y Times of Oman https://www.turkishminute.com/2021/03/05/extermination-device/ Turkish Minute https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkey-detains-lawyer-jailed-istanbul-mayor-main-opposition-party-says-2025-03-28/ Reuters https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/30/turkey-says-swedish-journalist-detained-on-terror-charges-and-for-insulting-the-president The Guardian https://www.economist.com/europe/2025/03/24/protests-are-the-last-thing-keeping-turkeys-democracy-alive The Economist

Key Takeaways

Previously, Presidential elections had been held every seven years (instead of the current five), using a system of indirect voting - in other words, where the candidate of the most popular party would assume the office.
The article is grounded strictly in the source video script and listed references.
Key developments are organized in sequence to clarify what changed and why it matters.
The closing sections focus on strategic implications and scenarios to monitor next.

Key Developments

Every Turkish c is an English j - i.e Recep = Rejep, Cumhur = Jumhur, Can = Jan, Tuncer = Tunjer On the evening of 23rd March 2025, a quiet hue descended over the square in front of Istanbul’s City Hall, and a woman in a brown overcoat began to speak. “We are a big family, and today has been very hard for all of us.” she began. “But we will win by resisting - step by step. They think they can get rid of Ekrem İmamoğlu by arresting him.” “Ekrem İmamoğlu has defeated you before. He will defeat you five more times if needed. Whether he is a candidate or not, he will win. As mentioned, it benefitted from a steep surge in seats during the 2023 parliamentary elections - in part due to dissatisfaction with the AKP, the faltering of the economy, as well as mass defection from the Democratic Left Party, a fellow Kemalist group whose leadership bizarrely announced support for the AKP and Cumhur (SIMON: Jumhur) prior to the election. Although Erdogan’s AKP suffered consecutive seat losses in 2018 and 2023, it continues to govern chiefly through an electoral alliance known as Cumhur (NOTE TO SIMON: ‘Jumhur’), which it entered in 2018 with the National Movement.

Strategic Implications

Because he has become the symbol of a nation’s fight for dignity.” With each statement, the tens of thousands of people in front of her erupted in rapturous applause and chants of President Ekrem. Many carried Turkish flags, some of them featuring images of the state founder Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. All were there for one singular purpose. The woman onstage was Dilek Kaya İmamoğlu, wife of Ekrem İmamoğlu, the detained Mayor of Istanbul. Four days previously, he was arrested by state authorities and soon sent, awaiting trial, to Marmara Prison - a high security facility known to house journalists, activists, and political figures who’d fallen foul of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s regime. The arrest led to an explosion of outrage, and massive protests have raged in Istanbul and multiple other cities in Turkey ever since. Only a few months after that, he infamously challenged Turkey’s Interior Minister and AKP member Süleyman Soylu to a fight in front of the Ministry, following an argument about migration. The fight didn’t happen and in January 2025, Özdağ was arrested for insulting the President. These included the scrapping and subsuming of the role of Prime Minister, the ability to directly appoint top public officials, the right to two further terms of five years each, and the power to intervene in the judiciary - which Erdogan had accused of being influenced by Gulen.

Risk and Uncertainty

Here’s what you need to know. A Divided Land March 19th was the day İmamoğlu - who’d served as Mayor since 2019, representing the opposition Republican People’s Party - was arrested. İmamoğlu’s detention was on the charge of alleged corruption, extortion, bribery, money laundering and supporting terrorism, in particular the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK. İmamoğlu had been in the government’s sights for many years: his party, known shorthand as the CHP - is the long term, bitter rival of Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party, or AKP. The CHP candidate, Kemal Kilidcaroglu, narrowly missed out on defeating Erdogan in the country’s Presidential election in 2023. Erdogan has served as President since 2014 - when he won the first direct election in Turkey’s history. Moreover, the 2019 Istanbul Mayor election could have been as something of an indication that strong-arming the electoral system wasn’t a good failsafe - since after the annulation, İmamoğlu won the run-off by a wider margin and the following election in 2024 by an even greater distance still. Further used against him was that during his Mayoral campaign in 2019, İmamoğlu had been paid an unprecedented visit by lawyers of Abdullah Ocalan, the PKK founder imprisoned on an island near Istanbul since 1999, reportedly under dire circumstances.

Outlook

Previously, Presidential elections had been held every seven years (instead of the current five), using a system of indirect voting - in other words, where the candidate of the most popular party would assume the office. The final indirect vote - in 2007 - was also the first victory of the AKP, and its candidate Abdullah Gul became President. The party had been established six years early by Gul, conservative lawmaker Bulent Arinc, and Erdogan himself - who was, by 2007, serving in the role of Prime Minister. The following years saw huge turbulence in Turkey - characterised by increasing authoritarianism, the beginning or expansion of military operations against Kurdish factions in Syria and Iraq, a massive influx of Syrians fleeing their country’s civil war, and a flailing economy. With it also came pronounced division in Turkish society - as well as an evolving three-way tussle between the largely conservative-voting central regions of Turkey, the CHP-voting west and major cities, and the Kurdish-dominated southeast. Amidst all this, Erdogan overcame an attempted coup d’etat in 2016 - allegedly orchestrated by adherents of the Islamist Gulen Movement, referred to in Turkey as Hizmet. At 71 years old, Erdogan is only five years younger than his erstwhile rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu - whose time as the CHP’s Presidential hopeful has since come to an end, likely in favour of younger leadership.

FAQ

What is the central development in Turkey is on Fire. Here’s Why.?

What remains uncertain right now?

Here’s what you need to know. A Divided Land March 19th was the day İmamoğlu - who’d served as Mayor since 2019, representing the opposition Republican People’s Party - was arrested.

Turkey is on Fire. Here's Why.

Key Takeaways

Key Developments

Strategic Implications

Risk and Uncertainty

Outlook

FAQ

What is the central development in Turkey is on Fire. Here’s Why.?

What remains uncertain right now?

Why does this matter strategically?

What indicators should observers monitor next?

Sources

Key Takeaways

Key Developments

Strategic Implications

Risk and Uncertainty

Outlook

Related Coverage

FAQ

What is the central development in Turkey is on Fire. Here’s Why.?

What remains uncertain right now?

Why does this matter strategically?

What indicators should observers monitor next?

Sources