Armageddon in Africa: How Sudan Became the World's Worst Crisis

As warnings go, it is hard to imagine one starker than that issued by the Norwegian Refugee Council on September 3rd: “We cannot be clearer: Sudan is experiencing a starvation crisis of historic proportions. Every opportunity to head-off the worst of this situation has been missed, and now the people of Sudan face a crisis unmatched in decades.” The crisis in question is a famine — one that threatens to be so large, so widespread, that researchers are cautioning it could become the deadliest seen in forty years. If true, it would mean that the suffering in Sudan may soon eclipse that seen in Yemen in 2018, Tigray in 2022, or even North Korea in the early 1990s. In terms of body count alone, it could be the greatest hunger catastrophe experienced by any nation since the Ethiopian famine of the mid-1980s.

Key Takeaways

• The Zamzam refugee camp became only the third place in twenty years to reach level five on the IPC hunger scale, with Médecins Sans Frontières reporting a child dying every two hours.
• The IPC estimates 750,000 people are already in famine conditions, with another 8.5 million at emergency levels of hunger and up to 25 million going hungry nationwide.
• The RSF’s ethnic cleansing campaign in Darfur included the systematic slaughter of between 10,000 and 15,000 Masalit tribe members when forces overran El-Genina.
• Staple food prices in Sudan are now 350 percent above pre-war averages, driven by the deliberate destruction and looting of agricultural areas including breadbasket states Al Jazira and Sennar.
• General al-Burhan is using his legal authority as recognized head of state to restrict UN aid deliveries from Chad into Darfur, despite having no military forces within 300 miles of that border.
• The Clingendael Institute’s pessimistic scenario projects over ten million famine-related deaths by 2027, which would rival China’s Great Leap Forward famine.

A Famine of Historic Proportions Takes Hold

And that is just at the midpoint for projections, the region most academics agree is a reasonable scenario for the future. At the highest end — such as the “pessimistic scenario” published by a researcher at the Clingendael Institute in the Netherlands — the death toll could become so great as to make Ethiopia’s nightmare seem almost trifling. The Economist grimly noted: “If much more help does not arrive very soon, it may prove the worst famine anywhere in the world since millions starved to death during China’s Great Leap Forward in the late 1950s and early 1960s.” For those living comfortable lives in 2024, such a claim probably sounds unhinged — the result of a writer mainlining liquid hyperbole before filing their report. Surely, the starvation of tens of millions in a single event is something left behind in the 20th Century. Perhaps that is the case. For now, though, it is worth pointing out that — no matter how big it ultimately winds up being — there are definite signs that a starvation crisis is already underway in Sudan. Back in August, the United Nations announced that a refugee camp known as Zamzam had reached level five on the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification’s hunger scale — only the third time in twenty years that anywhere on Earth has hit that grim milestone. Level five is when a famine is officially declared. And signs are that conditions in the camp mean it is fully deserved. Médecins Sans Frontières has reported that a child dies there every two hours due to starvation or diseases brought on by a lack of food.

The Scale of Suffering Across Sudan

But Zamzam is not unique. The UN believes there are many more parts of Sudan that are suffering just as badly. The only difference is that its researchers have access to reliable data from the camp. With the fighting so bad elsewhere, the world is relying on anecdotes to try and understand the situation. And what awful anecdotes they are. There are the doctors from one of the last medical facilities in South Darfur, who claim between four and five children in their care are dying of malnutrition every single day. There is the July assessment from the NGO Mercy Corps, which found that maybe a quarter of all children in Central Darfur are suffering acute malnutrition. Then there are the nationwide estimates. The Norwegian Refugee Council thinks up to 25 million people may be going hungry, with the worst-affected reduced to eating insects and leaves. Overall, the IPC suggests three-quarters of a million people may already be in famine conditions, with another 8.5 million at emergency levels of hunger. Unusually for a modern starvation crisis, it is not just the hinterland that is suffering. While Darfur is the famine’s epicenter, it is also gripping once-wealthy urban areas. The capital of Khartoum — once one of Africa’s most vibrant cities — has been reduced to rubble. Those who still shelter in its ruins are unable to access food or clean drinking water. In its twin city of Omdurman, people are already reported to have starved to death.

A War Between Two Generals Tears Sudan Apart

How did any nation in the modern era manage to collapse so utterly that millions starve while its capital resembles a dark, post-apocalyptic fantasy? The full answer is complex. But the simplified version can be summed up in a single sentence: what happened to Sudan is war. The war in question is the ugly fight for power that erupted in April 2023, between the Sudanese army — under General al-Burhan — and a paramilitary outfit known as the Rapid Support Forces (or RSF) under a warlord known as Hemedti. What began as a power struggle between two generals quickly morphed into a wild free-for-all, which saw the RSF unleash a campaign of ethnic cleansing in Darfur, the Sudanese army start bombing civilian areas, and third parties — such as the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North — seize huge chunks of territory for themselves. The carnage that resulted has been jaw-dropping, even for a world already used to images of destruction from Ukraine and Gaza. Entire cities — such as Khartoum — have been obliterated. A fifth of the country’s population of 48 million has been turned into refugees. No one knows how many have died, but the US envoy to Sudan estimates it could be as many as 150,000. This is the context needed to understand the looming famine — a context in which some 80 percent of hospitals in combat areas have been destroyed, and one in which diseases like cholera are starting to spread.

The Destruction of Sudan’s Agricultural Lifeline

To really comprehend why things are so bad requires looking not at the conflict’s impact on urban areas, but on the long-struggling agricultural sector. The keywords there are “long-struggling.” Even before the conflict ignited, Sudan’s food situation was precarious. The Conversation described the issues: “Economic instability, high inflation and frequent climate shocks such as droughts and floods. Agricultural production was often below average. Many regions depended on food imports, which were easily disrupted by logistical challenges.” For such a precarious system, the conflict was the ultimate disruption. The NGO-produced report Beyond the Numbers, Hunger and Conflict in Sudan documents how the warring parties swept into agricultural areas: “Attacks, looting and destruction have caused whole villages to flee, forcing farmers to abandon their land. This has fueled hunger not only for their families but also for the communities that relied on the food they produced.” Much of this has been carried out by the RSF, which Sudan expert Alex de Waal has described as a “looting machine.” Regions hit have included former-breadbasket states like Al Jazira, which the UN has now declared at risk of famine. The Conversation estimated that forty percent of the nation’s farmers had not been able to till their land this year due to the ongoing insecurity. Those who have managed to farm have sometimes found that there is nowhere safe to sell their crops. Working markets have been repeatedly bombarded, while trucks carrying supplies on key logistics routes have been attacked and looted. As food has become scarcer, the price of what is available has correspondingly shot up. The prices of staple goods are now estimated to be 350 percent above their pre-war average. For comparison, CPI data shows that food inflation in the US peaked at 13.5 percent in the summer of 2022. The inflation Sudan — already a much-poorer country — is now suffering is orders of magnitude greater.

The Weaponization of Hunger by Both Sides

This is a result of deliberate choices made by the warring parties. While any conflict would have badly shaken Sudan’s ability to produce food, the way this particular war is being waged all but guarantees millions will go hungry. And nowhere is that truer than in areas where both sides have weaponized food distribution. In the RSF’s case, that has involved cutting off supplies to areas their forces have placed under siege. Most dramatically, this includes the city of El-Fasher in North Darfur, and the nearby Zamzam refugee camp — the very place where the UN declared the start of a famine. Together, the city and camp house maybe two million people now at risk of starvation. Combined with their looting and destruction of agricultural land in breadbasket states like Sennar and Al Jazira, it is clear that the RSF bear heavy responsibility for the hunger crisis. Yet, while Hemedti may be a ruthless warlord, there is a good argument to be made that — where food politics are concerned — he is a mere amateur. As Alex de Waal has written in the London Review of Books, up to 90 percent of those facing famine are living in RSF-controlled areas. And while some of that is down to the RSF’s own looting, a lot of it is down to a deliberate military strategy the army is pursuing — a strategy of starvation. Back in September of 2023, the UN announced that it would recognize the army’s leader, General al-Burhan, as the official representative of Sudan. Of the two commanders, the RSF’s Hemedti is by far the more loathsome. His men are carrying out a campaign of ethnic cleansing in Darfur that UN experts are warning may constitute a genocide. When his forces overran the city of El-Genina last year, they are estimated to have systematically slaughtered between 10,000 and 15,000 members of the Masalit tribe — a massacre worse than even the one that took place in Srebrenica during the Bosnian War.

Al-Burhan’s Blockade and the Legal Stranglehold on Aid

Yet, while Hemedti may truly be one of the conflict’s most ruthless figures, that does not mean that General al-Burhan is a saint. Far from it. Back in 2021, al-Burhan conspired with Hemedti to overthrow Sudan’s civilian-led transitional government. Since the start of the war, his forces have repeatedly bombed densely-populated urban areas. And now, he may be deliberately engineering a famine to starve his opponents. As the recognized head of state, al-Burhan has to give his permission for the UN to deliver aid to any part of Sudan — including the parts that are not under his control. As de Waal explains: “The Sudanese Army has no forces within three hundred miles of the Sudan-Chad border, but as the acknowledged government of Sudan, it has the legal authority to close the frontier and obstruct humanitarian aid.” Because of this legal technicality, the UN cannot dispatch aid trucks overland from Chad into Darfur. And it really is only a technicality. The army does not control this border, a fact that can be seen every time RSF gun-runners flit back and forth across it with impunity. But because the UN has to defer to Sudan’s recognized head of state, its lawyers will not let aid trucks cross. The blockade is not total. Since August 15th, al-Burhan has allowed some aid trucks in from Chad. However, they may only use a single crossing, and the Economist reports: “The army continues to drag its feet with the necessary paperwork.” De Waal believes that this is all part of a strategy to create the conditions for unrest or even outright rebellion in RSF-held areas: “For an army struggling to make progress on the battlefield, starvation is a cheap and effective weapon, and the army intends to use it to the full.”

Death Toll Projections and a Bleak Horizon

The trouble is, whether it works or not, al-Burhan’s strategy will lead to the deaths of huge numbers of civilians. Exactly how many may die in the coming months is difficult to say, and predictions vary. Most researchers do not like to give out exact figures, since data from inside the warzone is so sparse and modeling what might happen is extremely hard. Those working at the IPC will only refer to “hundreds of thousands” who are likely to die. Others are more willing to offer concrete figures. One senior UN official briefed in February that some 222,000 children might perish this year. In May, the Clingendael Institute put together a model that suggested the overall death toll might be as high as 2.5 million. This model was somewhat controversial, since it involved calculating the availability of food versus the basic nutritional needs of the population, and using the shortfall to reach its figures. De Waal has called this method of calculation a “last-resort practice,” and noted that a similar model used in the Darfur famine of 1984 overestimated the eventual death toll by a factor of six or more. Still, Clingendael’s analysts believe they have calibrated well for factors like the pre-existing food shortages in neighboring countries. One of their number — Timmo Gaasbeek — has even gamed out potential scenarios all the way until 2027. The Economist reports that his “optimistic” scenario foresees about six million Sudanese dead by then. The “pessimistic” foresees a final famine-related death toll of over ten million. The last time any single famine killed that many people was during Chairman Mao’s Great Leap Forward.

No Peace in Sight as Sudan’s Crisis Deepens

To be clear, the pessimistic scenario comes from an already-pessimistic model. Few other analysts are willing to predict an outcome quite so catastrophic. But, even if the eventual death toll falls far short of ten million, the one thing most experts agree on is that the coming famine in Sudan is going to be bad. Once-in-a-generation bad. Sadly, it seems there is little the world can do to avert it. Right now, neither the army nor the RSF are willing to make peace. Sixteen ceasefires have already been agreed-upon and then ignored since the conflict erupted. At the most-recent talks in Switzerland, General al-Burhan did not even bother sending a representative. Meanwhile, the RSF continues to try and expand its territory into agricultural states like Sennar and White Nile, its troops burning and looting as they go, destroying any hopes that the next harvest might bring some relief to Sudan’s starving people. Nor can any hope be found on the international stage. Although both the army and RSF are kept afloat by outside backers — Egypt and Iran for the army, UAE for the RSF — none of their sponsors has shown any inclination to ask them to ease off. In short, the tragedy about to engulf Sudan may be one that is unavoidable. A tragedy born of two men desperately struggling for power, seemingly indifferent to the mass-suffering that struggle has brought. Sudan today may be the world’s great, forgotten crisis — overshadowed by both Ukraine and Gaza. Sadly, though, it could soon become infamous as the site of the greatest catastrophe seen in decades.

Frequently Asked Questions

How did the crisis in Sudan start?

The crisis in Sudan started with a power struggle between the Sudanese army, led by General al-Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by Hemedti, which erupted into war in April 2023. This conflict has its roots in the counter-insurgency against Darfuri rebels that began in 2003, and was further complicated by the 2019 revolution that led to the ousting of Bashir. The war has resulted in widespread destruction, famine, and a massive humanitarian crisis, with the Norwegian Refugee Council warning of a starvation crisis of historic proportions on September 3rd.

Is Sudan the worst humanitarian crisis in the world?

According to the Norwegian Refugee Council, Sudan is experiencing a starvation crisis of historic proportions, with up to 25 million people going hungry and three-quarters of a million people already in famine conditions. The crisis is considered one of the worst in decades, with the potential to eclipse the suffering seen in Yemen in 2018, Tigray in 2022, or even North Korea in the early-1990s. The Economist has noted that if more help does not arrive soon, it may prove to be the worst famine anywhere in the world since China’s Great Leap Forward in the late 1950s and early 1960s.

What is the US doing in Sudan?

The transcript excerpt does not provide specific information on the US’s involvement in Sudan. However, it is widely known that the international community, including the US, has been providing humanitarian aid to Sudan. The US has also been involved in diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict, but the specifics of their actions are not mentioned in the provided context.

Why is Sudan a high risk country?

Sudan is considered a high-risk country due to the ongoing war between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which has resulted in widespread violence, ethnic cleansing, and a massive humanitarian crisis. The country is also experiencing a starvation crisis of historic proportions, with up to 25 million people going hungry and three-quarters of a million people already in famine conditions. The conflict has also led to the destruction of infrastructure, including hospitals and food distribution centers, making it difficult for aid to reach those in need.

What is Hemedti known for?

Hemedti is known for his role as the leader of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary outfit that has been involved in the conflict in Sudan. He played a key role in the counter-insurgency against Darfuri rebels in the civil war that began in 2003, and became the second most powerful man in the country after the 2019 revolution that led to Bashir’s ousting. Hemedti’s forces have been accused of unleashing a campaign of ethnic cleansing in Darfur, contributing to the humanitarian crisis in the region.

What is the reason behind the war in Sudan?

The war in Sudan is a result of a power struggle between the Sudanese army, led by General al-Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by Hemedti. The conflict began in April 2023 and has since morphed into a wild free-for-all, with the RSF unleashing a campaign of ethnic cleansing in Darfur and the Sudanese army bombing civilian areas. The war has its roots in the counter-insurgency against Darfuri rebels that began in 2003, and was further complicated by the 2019 revolution that led to the ousting of Bashir.

What caused the refugee crisis in Sudan?

The refugee crisis in Sudan was caused by the war between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which has resulted in widespread violence, ethnic cleansing, and a massive humanitarian crisis. The conflict has led to the displacement of millions of people, with many forced to flee their homes and seek refuge in camps such as Zamzam, where a child dies every two hours due to starvation or diseases brought on by a lack of food. The crisis has also been exacerbated by the destruction of infrastructure, including hospitals and food distribution centers, making it difficult for aid to reach those in need.

Who are the two generals in Sudan?

The two generals in Sudan are General al-Burhan, who leads the Sudanese army, and Hemedti, who leads the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Both generals have played key roles in the conflict in Sudan, with General al-Burhan leading the Sudanese army’s efforts against the RSF and Hemedti leading the RSF’s campaign of ethnic cleansing in Darfur. The power struggle between the two generals has resulted in a devastating war that has led to a massive humanitarian crisis in the country.

Related Coverage

• War is Coming. Europe isn’t Ready.
• Sudan’s Partition: Ethnic Cleansing and the Push for a Divided State
• Sudan’s Forgotten War: Why the World Looks Away
• South Sudan is on Fire. Here’s Why. (And More)
• Cameroon’s Anglophone Crisis: From Colonial Divide to a Burning Conflict

Sources

1. https://www.nrc.no/news/2024/september/sudan-if-bullets-miss-hunger-wont/
2. https://www.nrc.no/globalassets/pdf/reports/if-bullets-miss/hunger-wont.pdf
3. https://www.lrb.co.uk/blog/2024/july/famine-in-sudan
4. https://www.economist.com/briefing/2024/08/29/anarchy-in-sudan-has-spawned-the-worlds-worst-famine-in-40-years
5. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/27/world/africa/sudan-famine-starvation.html
6. https://theconversation.com/sudan-food-emergency-local-researcher-unpacks-scale-of-the-disaster-and-what-action-is-needed-232197
7. https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/what-extent-sudans-humanitarian-crisis
8. https://www.hrw.org/report/2024/05/09/massalit-will-not-come-home/ethnic-cleansing-and-crimes-against-humanity-el
9. https://theconversation.com/sudan-is-the-worlds-worst-modern-war-what-has-happened-and-what-itll-take-to-rebuild-237876